On March 21, 2024, at the high-level event "Energy and Climate Governance in Ukraine - Towards a Green Recovery" in Brussels (Belgium), Ukraine presented the draft National Energy and Climate Plan of Ukraine (NECP) to the European Commission. All key Ukrainian ministries and agencies, together with independent experts under the auspices of the DiXi Group analytical center and the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, with the support of the British Embassy in Ukraine and the American Net Zero World Initiative, participated in the development of this plan. The process was coordinated by the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine. Scientists from the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine also took part in this gathering.
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During the preparation of the NECP, experts from the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine were primarily responsible for modelling and forecasting of the Ukrainian energy development and greenhouse gas emission dynamics, comprehensive assessing of contribution of implementing a wide range of decarbonization measures, renewable energy development, energy efficiency improvement, etc. towards achieving Ukraine's international commitments under the Energy Community, European integration (in particular, the Association Agreement between Ukraine, of the one part, and the European Union, the European Atomic Energy Community and their Member States, of the other part) and the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. For this purpose, they use the TIMES-Ukraine model developed at the Institute, which is widely known at the national and international levels. It has been created to assess the dynamics of the energy system in the long-term perspective. The model is recognized worldwide, as evidenced by numerous scientific publications in the highest-rated professional journals. In recent years, the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine has been applying and developing this model in cooperation with US national laboratories, including the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL).
The meeting "Energy and Climate Governance in Ukraine - Towards a Green Recovery" on March 21, 2024 took place with the participation of the European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson and the First Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine - Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko (online). The draft NECP was presented by Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine Oleksiy Sobolev, Deputy Minister of Energy of Ukraine Svitlana Grynchuk, and President of the DiXi Group analytical center Olena Pavlenko. From the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the event was attended by the Head of Department of the Energy Sector Development and Forecasting, PhD in Economics Roman Podolets, and a Leading Research Officer of this Department, PhD in Engineering Oleksandr Diachuk.
 PhD in Engineering Oleksandr Diachuk at the presentation of the National Energy and Climate Plan of Ukraine |
The Ukrainian team of NECP developers also met with representatives of the European Commission's Directorate-General for Energy. The main discussion focused on finalizing the draft NECP in accordance with the requirements of the European Union, as well as knowledge exchange, including on additional measures for decarbonizing Ukraine's economy. Furthermore, at the initiative of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, some issues and preliminary modelling results for the NECP were discussed.
Let us recall that Ukraine presented the first version of the draft NECP in December 2023 at the UN Climate Change Conference COP28 in the United Arab Emirates. On February 14, 2024, the Ministry of Economy published the draft NECP for a broad discussion. Inviting the discussion of the draft text, Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine Oleksiy Sobolev
emphasized that the National Energy and Climate Plan of Ukraine is a strategic document aimed at aligning energy and climate policies to ensure sustainable development and economic recovery in Ukraine. According to him, the development of such documents is a requirement for all EU member states and contracting parties of the Energy Community, not just Ukraine. As the government official noted, the development and subsequent implementation of the NECP is one of the important tasks for Ukraine to gain membership in the European Union, and its implementation will become the foundation for the "green transition" and open up significant business opportunities for Ukrainians, including in the energy sector, manufacturing, green steel production, and other industries.
Among
the decarbonization goals in the National Energy and Climate Plan of Ukraine:
- Reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 65% compared to the 1990 level (this coincides with the ambitious goal stated in Ukraine's Updated Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement);
- Achieving climate neutrality in the energy sector by 2050 and across the entire economy by 2060;
- Phasing out coal-fired power generation by 2035;
- Reducing methane emissions by 30% by 2030 of the 2020 level;
- Achieving a 27% share of renewable energy sources in the gross final energy consumption by 2030 (in 2020 this indicator was at 9%);
- Achieving a 25% share of renewable energy sources in total electricity production by 2030;
- Achieving a 30% share of alternative energy sources (renewable energy and secondary energy resources) in heat production by 2025 and 40% by 2035;
- Increasing the level of alternative fuels use (biofuels or their blends with traditional fuels) and electricity (generated from both traditional and renewable sources) in the transport sector to 50% by 2030.
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According to the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine